Coconut for the future: How will Coconut respond to global climate change?

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Climate change projections suggest that agricultural sector of Sri Lanka alone will incur some damaging economic losses between 11 – 39 billion Rs. annually. Yet, Sri Lanka’s Agriculture Sector in general, coconut sector in particular is not ready to face this unescapable challenge as we lack information of the crop varieties will tolerate increasing heat and water stresses.  As coconut is long lived, a seedling establish in the field today cannot avoid these rapid increases in temperature and drought by migration and will face the future projected temperature and rainfall changes during its economic lifespan. Hence, the resilience of Sri Lanka’s coconut sector to climate warming will depend on their capacity to function at both higher mean and extreme temperatures. Unfortunately, we currently lack a detail assessment on how coconut will response to both short and long term projections of climate in major coconut growing areas of Sri Lanka. Therefore, it is difficult for long term policy making and planning of the industry to sustain the production without a significant negative impacts on the sector.       

            Overall the project; a much-needed investment for the future of coconut sector of Sri Lanka, is set to fill the unprecedented knowledge gap on the agronomic and physiological performance of coconut. This project will inform growers which variety to grow, where to grow and provide an insight to potential variations of coconut yield in future climates. Hence the stakeholders will be able to make decisions on their production capacities and forward buying contracts accordingly. The outcome of this project will guide Ministry of Plantation Industries on decision making in coconut sector to build a sustainable coconut industry that resilient to adverse environmental impacts in future years to come.

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